Monthly Archives: July, 2016

South Sudan @5 and second Juba War

On the onset of signing peace agreement in Addis Ababa and Juba, Government of South Sudan in the person of President Salva Kiir put forth many reservations on the agreement, among the reservations were the issues of “final decision making” mechanisms and the issue of the two armies in the capital Juba and other major towns. The peace makers of he CPA2 said it is a compromise peace agreement, maybe the word compromise have a good meaning in English but in the simple Arabic it is not a serious word that a peace agreement can be termed “compromise” peace, it mean joking. The designers would say saving lives of the people is better than bad peace, well, bad peace bring back death of the same people spared. Therefore, people who don’t like jokes in both camps of the President and of to be First Vice President knew they were been lock horned again in the CPA2 and that once the forces meet in Juba the smarter one will take down the dull one down.

Regardless of speculations and the bad role played by the social media in South Sudan and specially by South Sudanese in Diaspora, it was a matter of time for a keen observer to see the end or the beginning of second Juba war to come in months.
SPLA-IO is made up by officers who deserted the SPLA army, some officers while in the bush were given higher ranks by their organization and when they returned to Juba they started to interact with their former colleagues in the national security or in the military, which created sentiments among the old peers. Lt colonel George Gismalla was allegedly killed by the government security operatives. And SGt from SPLA-IO was reported killed within the pace of the same week. On 7/7/2016 a SPLA-IO convoy was stopped at checkpoint in Gudele1 Lou Clinic junction where the their vehicle was asked to be search and remove the tinted glasses, the discussion led to the SPLA-IO shooting the officer from government forces. The shooting resulted in the death of 5 government soldiers and two soldiers wounded from the IO side and many civilians were caught in crossfire, and man and his 6 years old son were reported shot in their car and got killed on spot.
The msytery of Friday 8th July shooting: who started the fighting in J1?  It is not clear who started the shooting on Friday the 8th July, but there are two stories, first James Gatdet the Spokesman for FVP wrote on his facebook that FVP was about to be assassinated while in the meeting at J1 on this, his bodyguards were notified and in turn they took on their shoulders the rescue mission by forcing their way into J1 where the meeting of the Presidency was taking place.
 FVP guards shoot on the Presidential guards from the government. James later deleted the post, and after the ceasefire, he bravely re-post it.
Second, it was reported that the Presidential guards started the firing on FVP bodyguards when they learn that Captain David Rieu who was present among the protection unit of the FVP is the same man who killed their colleagues the other night in Gudele. It is reported that all the bodyguards of FVP who were in J1 were all killed except the two bodyguards who were inside the J1 gate.
The current fighting which resumed on Sunday until Monday were solely fueled by the killings among the Presidential guards on Friday. A revenge killings, killings instigated by the absent of acceptance on both sides.
Government of National Unity is being formed but none of its members are preaching about it except only one Mabior Garang de Mabior on his Instagram account sometimes and sometimes with contradictory messages.
Ceasefire declared by the President and later reciprocated the First Vice President is holding, there are rumors of IO re-grouping to launch war on Kiir government, but the reality remains speculations by the South Sudan “experts” it was only in Leer the home of the FVP is where fighting was reported, it was reported that IO attacked government forces in Leer town. But the fighting has died down. An expert told me in Bentiu that the situation remains calm in Bentiu and that the parties are not interested in fighting, “they are wearied of fighting”
If there is fighting in Juba or else where it is going to be in two years times when the young traumatized kids grow into men and will take on their shoulders revenge of the current fights. Gaining new strength will set the ground for new Dinka-Nuer fighting in the future, now they are done with fight, scores settled, prophecies falsified.
Peace to South Sudan