What I knew Since March 2013

30/03/2013 12:06:38 م] Jo…: well two things could happen now, before elections (tell me if you also think this): SPLM stays together and Riek and Salva have a working relationship; or Nuer and Shilluk try to overtake Dinka leadership in SPLM and you have a big division and huge fight within SPLM/A

 [30/03/2013 12:07:42 م] James Diar: i am very much worried

[30/03/2013 12:07:47 م] James Diar: first:

[30/03/2013 12:07:59 م] James Diar: Riek is determined to stand for elections, he is right

[30/03/2013 12:08:11 م] Jo…: Riek is sure he wants to be president?

[30/03/2013 12:08:23 م] James Diar: yes he want

[30/03/2013 12:08:42 م] James Diar: there is no SPLM, there are Dinka and Nuer top generals supported by other small tribes

[30/03/2013 12:08:53 م] Jo…: but he possibly loses EVERYTHING if Dinka SPLM/A tear each other apart

[30/03/2013 12:09:03 م] James Diar: yes

[30/03/2013 12:09:07 م] James Diar: everything

[30/03/2013 12:09:17 م] James Diar: i am now campaigning for Riek

[30/03/2013 12:09:24 م] James Diar: not officially of course

[30/03/2013 12:09:38 م] James Diar: but in tea places, in beer places, in buses

[30/03/2013 12:09:41 م] Jo…: I see – I don’t have a preference, but tell me why Riek is a good choice

[30/03/2013 12:10:00 م] James Diar: because it will save the situation, no fight no more wars

[30/03/2013 12:10:09 م] James Diar: it is not because he is good

[30/03/2013 12:10:15 م] James Diar: but because i do not want war again

[30/03/2013 12:10:27 م] James Diar: among the Dinka and Nuer

[30/03/2013 12:10:39 م] James Diar: it is a time bomb

[30/03/2013 12:10:58 م] James Diar: it is also another dimension,

[30/03/2013 12:11:01 م] Jo…: I know that with the integration of SSDF, the biggest single ethnic group in SPLA now is Nuer

[30/03/2013 12:11:14 م] James Diar: not true

[30/03/2013 12:11:32 م] Jo…: leaders are still Dinka but largest proportion is Nuer no?

[30/03/2013 12:11:37 م] James Diar: maybe yes number of officers but not number of foot soldiers

[30/03/2013 12:11:51 م] James Diar: Numbers of officers Nuer are many

[30/03/2013 12:12:03 م] James Diar: so let talk of 50%

[30/03/2013 12:12:15 م] Jo…: well then perhaps it depends on the other groups

[30/03/2013 12:12:19 م] James Diar: but the confusion is not who is big in the army

[30/03/2013 12:12:21 م] Jo…: because nobody has a majority

[30/03/2013 12:12:38 م] James Diar: it is who can mobilize his tribes if war broke out

[30/03/2013 12:12:42 م] Jo…: but they will use the threat of force from the army for power, no?

[30/03/2013 12:12:52 م] Jo…: I see.

[30/03/2013 12:12:53 م] James Diar: both can easily mobilize their tribes

[30/03/2013 12:13:02 م] James Diar: no

[30/03/2013 12:13:11 م] James Diar: there is no army

[30/03/2013 12:13:24 م] James Diar: there are militias loyal to each commander

[30/03/2013 12:13:33 م] Jo…: yes, sure, agreed

[30/03/2013 12:13:51 م] James Diar: so Riek can gain in Unity, some parts of Jongeli, some parts of Upper Nile

[30/03/2013 12:14:14 م] James Diar: it is the old grudges of the Dinka vs. Nuer

[30/03/2013 12:14:22 م] James Diar: so i go for Riek for peace

[30/03/2013 12:14:31 م] James Diar: not because he is a good leader

[30/03/2013 12:14:43 م] James Diar: he is bad and worse than Kiir

[30/03/2013 12:14:45 م] Jo…: wait, because Dinka will not mobilize as much if Nuer is president?

[30/03/2013 12:15:07 م] James Diar: no problem

[30/03/2013 12:15:19 م] James Diar: it is a chance of each person

[30/03/2013 12:15:26 م] James Diar: it is the splm to decide

[30/03/2013 12:15:55 م] James Diar: if the splm failed to decide they are making doom fire for the people of south sudan

[30/03/2013 12:16:14 م] James Diar: Equatorian want the fight between these two tribes

[30/03/2013 12:16:32 م] James Diar: because they will need their numbers to go down

[30/03/2013 12:17:39 م] Jo…: it’s a difficult situation….

[30/03/2013 12:17:54 م] James Diar: very much

[30/03/2013 12:18:33 م] James Diar: so, if splm failed Riek, he will form a new party, and there will be heated contest in the elections or there will be no elections

[30/03/2013 12:18:59 م] Jo…: yes, I assume he will but then both Riek and Salva will have less power overall, no matter who wins

[30/03/2013 12:19:38 م] James Diar: yes, to rescue the situation

[30/03/2013 12:20:32 م] Jo…: so which way will the other groups fall? Towards Riek or towards Salva?

[30/03/2013 12:21:34 م] James Diar: So far, Equatorian has their own hidden agenda, they cannot make it known to other

[30/03/2013 12:21:50 م] Jo…: when you say ‘Equatorians’, who do you mean?

[30/03/2013 12:21:57 م] Jo…: Bari, Mundari?

[30/03/2013 12:22:03 م] James Diar: Bor will support Kiir to revenge on Riek and also to wait and grab power if Kiir failed

[30/03/2013 12:22:19 م] James Diar: Bari, and the three states of greater Equatoria

[30/03/2013 12:22:39 م] Jo…: aha

[30/03/2013 12:22:42 م] Jo…: ok


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